Sunday, February 04, 2007

Cool heads and warm hearts on global warming














The most often cited evidence for global warming is the "Hockey Stick" graph shown here. Climatologists who believe in the heating up of this planet have constructed the temperature time series and concluded that industrialization has caused global warming. Many people are convinced by advocates, such as Al Gore, that if we don't do anything about global warming right away, the human race is doomed.

There are many ways to approach this issue, but the "cool heads with warm hearts" method should be adopted here. Being trained as both an engineer and an economist, I believe in science and logical reasoning. Science is evolved around skepticism. Whenever we see some so-called conclusive evidence, we must always ask how the researchers get the data and what their methodology is. I don't know how they collect earth temperature in year 1000 when people didn't even have a measure for temperature. Even if there is a scientific way to do it, extrapolation is inevitable. With extrapolation, scientists are able to manipulate the results anyway they want. Such disbelief makes it hard for me to agree with the inconvenient truth from the get-go.

That being said, I still think global warming is an issue that needs more resources devoted to. Paul Samuleson said it in the best way it can be, "because the uncertainties are so one-sided, with a small probability of very substantial damages, it might be rational to pay a 'risk premium' in terms of taking additional steps today to slow climate change. Just as individuals find it rational to sacrifice a little income today to buy fire detectors to lower the chance of a catastrophic fire, so might societies find it prudent to sacrifice some of their national incomes today to rescue the chance of catastrophic global warming in the centuries to come."

I am willing to sacrifice a little bit of today's income to buy some insurance for my future generations. I just don't like liberals' all-out war on fossil fuels or even on economic development. The political motivations hiding behind a well-meaning social issue disgust me.

(Picture: Silflay Hraka)

No comments: