Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Moneyball and no-trade theory

















To non-A's fans' chagrin, Billy Beane once again proved Moneyball rules in the big league. A's are red hot and Frank Thomas is on a home-run streak. Thomas costs the A's only half a million this year! Heard of Mark Mulder this year? I still remember how people scolded Billy Beane for giving away two of the big three. Voila! A's got a new pitching trio. Yet, not only Mulder is gone for the season, but Hudson doesn't do well, either.

Every time I read stories like that, I always recalled the no-trade theory learned in game theory class. If someone is giving up something valuable, he must know that stuff is flawed. On the other hand, if someone is eager to get something, he must know that stuff is very valuable. Consequently, there shouldn't be any trade at all.

Billy Beane is a proven genius. I just don't understand why any sane general managers would do deal with him. What do you know? They just keep on being preyed. I root for LA Angels, but can't find a way to hate Billy Beane, even when Angels are trailing right now. I just wish Arte Moreno can acquire Billy Beane some day.

(Picture: AP)

1 comment:

Jay Chen said...

True...

Another evidence of market inefficiency.